Tuesday, September 28, 2010

9/28

Sebelius pounds Angle over autism comments.

The next Tea Party Express cross-country tour will begin in Nevada.

WSJ on Scott Ashjian: A Vegas Character who just might matter.

Angle: I never said I wanted to privatize the VA — but, of course, she did.

Monday, September 27, 2010

9/27

- Tea Party activist: Nevada Senate race is 'No. 1 goal'

Fiscal discipline called key issue for movement


Amy Kremer, chairwoman of Tea Party Express, said in an interview before attending a private fundraiser for Angle in Las Vegas. Polls show Angle and Reid locked in a dead heat for the Nevada Senate seat.

- A COUPLE OF REAL POLL NUGGETS:

Nugget No. 1 - It's a good 24 hours when you can post the RJ's poll results before the antediluvian "newspaper" figures out how to post them to the Web and also release results of a poll not designed to show Sharron Angle in the best light. What's beautiful about the Public Opinion Strategies is that it can't be assailed because Glen Bolger is one of the best in the business, and it was done for a conservative group, the Retail Association of Nevada.

This race still is tight and any incumbent with a 51 percent unfavorable rating has to worry that the undecideds will break against him, even if his opponent has a 52 percent negative rating.

But, finally, a public poll that confirms private data I have seen. More on the findings Sunday in my Sun column.

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Post-Class
Reids numbers go up when he is back in washington. Despite not accomplishing his priorities like dream act or dadt. POS poll

How has he appealed to target audiences based on what he is doing in DC?

10/14 debate.
10/16 early voting begins.
Expect message adaptation at debate.

Friday, September 24, 2010

9/24

Good news for both Elder and Younger in stunning results found by Public Opinion Strategies, experienced in Nevada and respected nationally, in survey to be released later today by Retail Association of Nevada (also hardly a bastion of liberalism).

Harry Reid 45, Sharron Angle, 40
Brian Sandoval 45, Rory Reid, 39

Paradigm shift? Don't think so. Most public polls have had unreliable samples. POS' Glen Bolger knows what he is doing and Democrats are coming home, Reid the Elder has been pounding Angle, and Reid the Younger has been pummeling Sandoval.

This is part of a series of polls POS has conducted for RAN, and it also shows three-quarters of the public think the economy is headed in the wrong direction, and people are concerned about unemployment and taxes. It also shows a merit selection for judges question winning.

Full poll here.

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This is a piece from the forum they did last night. As agreed upon, Reid was not there. He pre-taped his answers. No questions on EFCA, and the event was taped in advance of the NMB resolution so no questions about that either.

This was mentioned on previous field calls. This is the event Angle agreed to, then backed out. Putting Reid supporters and Tea party people in the same room can be an issue.

There will be no audience at the on the October 14th debate.

Brawl erupts between Reid, Angle supporters at forum
http://www.lvrj.com/news/fight-erupts-at-reid--angle-election-forum-103685344.html

9/24

A BRAWL erupts after a strange Reid-on-tape, Angle-in-person forum at a local Christian school.

Wednesday, September 22, 2010

Tuesday 9/21

- Harry Reid calls Kirsten Gillibrand the "hottest member". Odd.

- "Sharron Angle: Just Too Extreme"

RALSTON:
A QUINTET OF U.S. SENATE RACE NUGGETS:

Nugget No. 1 - FOX News gushes like an RJ reporter/editor/publisher in reporting a dead heat (again) in the race: http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2010/09/21/fox-news-polls-track-tea-party-influence-battleground-states/

But a look at the crosstabs of these cheap polls once again reveals infirmities that raise questions about any of the results. You can find them on the same page.

Even though they just did a poll in the race, the FOX folks conducted another and still have independents as way too much of the universe - 29 percent, which is twice their registered numbers in the state - and have Republicans and Democrats essentially even. If they had kept the same model as before - also skewed - Reid would be leading by 1. And Reid losing independents to Angle by 19 points? Seems strange.

Can anyone get me a sample in one of these polls that makes any sense?

Nugget No. 2 - A new Angle web ad is a DREAM to look at: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fEyU4Zf2DYE

I predict TV ads with a similar theme soon - Reid loves amnesty, causes unemployment.

Nugget No. 3 - Why does the Angle campaign keep denying things - as she repeatedly did on a recent FOX News interview - that so easily can be refuted by audio or video clips? Truly bizarre.

The latest: Reid puts out a new ad designed to appeal to veterans: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6Q2fdBLRKP8

Angle spokesman Jerry Stacy responds thusly:

"Sharron Angle's father is a veteran of World War II and the Korean War and receives care from a Veterans' Affairs hospital. Never has Sharron Angle called for privatizing Veterans' Affairs and never has Sharron called for the end of Veterans' Affairs"

What? There is audio, used previously, from an interview with KNPR in which Angle clearly says she wants a "privatized system."

This is a familiar pattern: Say something, then pretend it was never said, apparently forgetting there is this thing called videotape and often it is on the Internet.

Orwell would love this technique.

Nugget No. 4 - One person who is making a horse's patootie out of himself in the crossfire of this race is GOP Assemblyman Ed Goedhart, who owns a dairy company and put out a news release attacking that Reid ad by Anderson Dairy folks as showing he favored one company over another. The backbencher, whose only claim to fame so far was to defend viewing what appeared to be porn by saying it was research for a fishing trip, has served nicely as a bullet for smashmouth Reid-basher Chuck Muth's gun.

But now Goedhart has followed up with another release, referring folks to a Washington Post story he says backs up his allegations against Reid: http://www.keepmilkpriceslow.org/g2gnews/news12112006.htm

It is a fascinating story, but it might have too many words for Goedhart to read because he seems to have missed two critical points besides Reid's involvement on behalf of Anderson Dairy:

1. It was Jon Kyl's idea. He's a GOP senator, Mr. Ed.
2. Speaker-in-Hoping John Boehner pulled a nice stunt to get it through the House. He's also a Republican, Mr. Ed.

We asked Goedhart to come on "Face to Face" to debate the issue with Anderson Dairy. He agreed, then backed out. When I asked him why, he said his story didn't lend itself to "sound bites." Then he accused me of just listening to Reid's folks on the subject - I have not even talked to Reid's people about this topic. And after I asked him about the GOP connections to the bill, he suggested the next thing I'd do is blame Bush 43.

You can't make this stuff up. And he is a duly elected official.

Nugget No. 5 - American Crossroads and Patriot Majority are back:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FZOKv_NPW9o

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=056xxfoJ6cQ

Monday, September 20, 2010

9/20

Weekend update:

- Angle accuses HR of supporting SS for illegal immigrants. Reid responds. "quote"
(KRNV's Anjeanette Damon took a look at Angle's latest false attack ad and gave the central claims of the ad an "F" for lying about Senator Reid's record on immigration.)

- Angle goes after Reid on that vaguely true point, but doesn't even touch him on the DREAM Act--- which Reid has said he will bring to the Senate floor this week along with DADT repeal.

- OFA (now a project of the DNC) plans an Organizing Rally in Las Vegas, Nevada
Friday, October 22.

- SUV-Gate

-RalstonFlash--Nevada unemployment rate at 14.4 percent in August
14.7 percent in Las Vegas.
Still highest in country.
Was 14.3 percent in July.

Friday, September 17, 2010

9/17

Ralston Flash:
Nugget No. 2 - Harry Reid continues to experience blowback from his Chris Coons/pet carelessness, with Newsweek and Vanity Fair posting brutal pieces on it, and Coons' opponent, Christine O'Donnell, using it to raise money.

-- Newsweek

-- Vanity Fair


Fact-checking reveals problems with Angle's ad calling Harry Reid "the best friend an illegal alien ever had."

Thursday, September 16, 2010

9/16

ADS:
Sharron Angle has a new ad on immigration, specif. the Arizona immigration law, and accuses Reid of supporting Social Security for illegal immigrants. True?

CONTROVERSY and 3rd PARTIES
- Failed GOP Primary candidate Danny Tarkanian sent a letter to Harry Reid today, calling on him to promise he will not pass unpopular legislation during a lame duck.
* ALSO, Democrats filed an FEC complaint that Danny Tarkanian's third-party group, Harry Reid Votes, is coordinating with the Angle campaign. *
- Club For Growth Action launched 5 new ads today targeting Reid, Crist, Sestak, Feingold, and Bennet.

Morning Score:
ANTE FOR ANGLE: Senate Republicans, including John Cornyn, Minority Leader Mitch McConnell and Whip Jon Kyl are hosting a fundraiser today for Nevada Senate candidate Sharron Angle. The event is scheduled to take place at NRSC headquarters, according to an invitation obtained by Morning Score, with a requested donation of $1,000 for PACs and $500 for individuals.

BIG NAMES IN NEVADA:
According to Jon Ralston, "Bill Clinton was here today (and is expected again next month), Sarah Palin may come and President Obama is coming."

REUTERS
Two Nevada opinions:
1. "I'm a die-hard Republican. But I'm a Nevadan first. And what is good for Nevada is to get Harry Reid re-elected," vowed Jim Murren, the head of casino company MGM Mirage, which has benefited from lobbying by Reid.
2. "I think Harry Reid should be taken out. I'm not sure Sharron Angle could do any better," said Las Vegas hairdresser Helen Elgas, 47, a registered Republican.

CNN: Angle 42, Reid 41.

Reid-Angle Race All Tied Up
CNN
Paul Steinhauser – September 15, 2010



A new poll indicates that the bitter campaign battle in Nevada between Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid and Republican challenger Sharron Angle is deadlocked.
Highlights:

- Sampling error = +/- 3.5% pts.

- Reid has an advantage among women while Angle leads among men.

- 5% support Scott Ashjian, who's running as a Tea Party candidate but who is shunned by many in the grassroots conservative moment

- 11% say they are voting for none of the candidates listed.

- Angle: 7-pt advantage among independents.

- The survey also suggests a strong gender divide.
"The traditional gender gap has always meant that men favor Republicans and women favor Democrats, and it looks like that pattern is emerging in Nevada despite the fact that the Republican is a woman and the Democrat is a man," says CNN Polling Director Keating Holland. "Nevada voters are motivated more by traditional partisan differences rather than identity politics."

The CNN/Time/Opinion Research Corporation poll was conducted September 10-14, with 789 likely voters questioned by telephone.

Wednesday, September 15, 2010

NRSC basic bullets

Nevada – Harry Reid, D

-Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid is one of the most vulnerable senators in the Democratic caucus.
-After a multi-million dollar media blitz, Reid’s numbers have still not improved.
-The liberal Democratic agenda that Reid is charged with touting is out of step with the voters of Nevada.
-Former State Assemblywoman Sharron Angle is the Republican nominee.
-The Nevada U.S. Senate race is currently in a dead heat. Angle outraised Reid in the -2nd quarter $2.6M- $2.4M but trails him in cash on hand $1.8M to $9M.
-Angle is poised to give Reid a strong challenge in November.
Primary Date was June 8, 2010.

9/15

MONEY:
Ralston Nugget- "If you don't believe Sharron Angle knows how to use FOX News to fundraise, her campaign tells me she raised $200,000 from those who saw that withering interview Sean Hannity conducted with her on Friday. The Angleites also claim they had one of their best online fundraising weeks of the campaign.

The Reid folks are hopeful Angle is having money problems because she has changed her ad buys recently, placing and then cancelling orders, I am told. But the Angle folks insist they are going week to week to keep Team Reid guessing. It's working."

BELTWAY:
- The White House's new attacks on House Minority Leader John Boehner may call unwanted attention to Harry Reid's less desirable record. Though WH PressSec Robert Gibbs recently portrayed Leader Boehner as "especially" indebted to lobbyists, Harry Reid raised cash from lobbyists 2 to Boehner's 1.

ON MESSAGE:
- Reid campaign continues to depict Angle as confused, amateur, and self-contradicting, and she helps him.

THOUGHTS:
So far, neither candidate appears in their ads--- because both are very unpopular, albeit for different reasons. Recent Reuters article agrees:

"It's a very strange race because neither of one them is particularly likable," said University of Nevada Las Vegas Associate Professor David Damore.

Interesting bedfellows: Rove and Angle. ? Rove's efforts through Crossroads GPS have carried Angle.


Sharron Angle doesn't have so many supporters as Harry Reid has enemies.

Tuesday, September 14, 2010

9/14 Background and Til Now

Reuters/Ipsos: Among America's most powerful politicians, Reid finds himself locked in a close contest at home, leading 46 percent to 44 percent among likely voters over Sharron Angle, a former substitute schoolteacher who was almost unknown until several months ago.

- Polls are all neck-and-neck within the margin of error since mid-July. Angle enjoys strong support from many in the Tea Party movement; Reid, the top Democrat in the Senate who's bidding for a fifth term in the chamber.

-9/10: Sharron cancels debate.
Las Vegas Sun columnist Jon Ralston said Friday he arranged an Oct. 21 sit down with the candidates after Angle challenged Reid to a debate in a June interview on Ralston's political show. Angle has since reneged.

- 9/14 Reid Tweets Lady Gaga over DADT #nvsen
http://www.politico.com/click/stories/1009/reid_tweets_lady_gaga_over_dadt.html

- Reid Pushes Small Business Bill, While Promoting Anti-Small Business Legislation
Las Vegas (September 14, 2010) – Senator Harry Reid has announced the Senate’s intention of moving forward this week on a bill to help small businesses. In today’s economy, Nevada’s employers are struggling to survive and that’s what makes Reid’s support for the job-killing Employee ‘Forced’ Choice Act (EFCA) so bewildering.


- How does Rory Reid and the Gub race factor in?